Read: The class of 2023 - how the pandemic and the cost-of-living crisis have impacted their university choices

As students wait for their A-Level results on Thursday, new analysis shows how their plans for the future have been affected by the pandemic and the cost-of-living crisis.

The COVID Social Mobility & Opportunities (COSMO) study, led jointly by the UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities (CEPEO), the UCL Centre for Longitudinal Studies and the Sutton Trust, is the largest study of its kind into the impacts of the pandemic on young people. This new analysis focuses on the higher education plans of the Class of 2023, covering 11,000 young people across England in Year 13 or equivalent.  

It finds that they are much more inclined to go to university but that there are significant barriers that risk putting less advantaged young people off going, especially to Russell Group universities. Among the class of 2023, the proportion aspiring to go to university has risen compared to earlier cohorts. In a 2008 study, 57% reported that they were very or fairly likely to apply, whereas the current analysishas seen it rise to 68%.

University aspirations varied by socio-economic background. Fifty seven per cent of young people from working class families were likely to have applied to university compared to 77% of those with parents in professional or managerial positions. Similarly, they were much less likely to have applied to a prestigious Russell Group university, just 36% of them compared to 50%. Aspirations also differed between students attending different kinds of post-16 institutions. Ninety six per cent of those who were privately educated were more likely to either have already applied to or intend to apply to university, compared to 74% of those who attended a state school or college.

There are also emerging differences in those considering living at home while at university. Up to 34% of A-Level students were considering living at home if they got into their preferred university. Those from working class families were much more likely to plan on living at home. Those from families who used a foodbank last year were also much more likely to plan to live at home – 31% compared to 19% - but were also much less likely to apply for university at all.

For those young people who did not intend to apply for university at all, 22% cited affordability as a factor in their decision. Those from families who had used a food bank in the last year were 20% more likely to report not being able to afford to go as a barrier to applying, compared to those who had not. This comes as maintenance support in England will rise by less than 3% this September, well below inflation.

There were also differences in attitudes towards going to university in the Class of 2023. Whilst almost three-quarters (73%) agreed that getting a degree leads to better-paid jobs later in life, less than half (48%) viewed taking up student loans to go to university as a good investment. These attitudes varied by young people’s socio-economic background. Compared to 71% of those from working class families, 80% of young people with professional and managerial parents were more likely to say that doing a degree leads to better paid jobs and that taking up student loans to go to university is a good investment (55% vs 43%).

The analysis clearly shows that increasing numbers of young people want to go to university, and see it as beneficial for their futures, but that their aspirations remain stratified by their socio-economic backgrounds. It is evident that cost-of-living pressures limit university choices and make it less likely that young people from disadvantaged backgrounds will apply to more prestigious universities. That suggests that the current system is no longer fit for purpose and does not provide enough support for those who may have the potential but who lack the financial resources of others.

The full report can be accessed here.