The Sunday Take: Labour must now show what it will do in government.
by Matthew McPherson, Director of Policy and Public Affairs
By Friday evening, Coronation fever had - quite understandably - swept away most coverage of Thursday’s local elections. It’s easy to forget their significance, but these elections really do matter, both for how our local communities are run, but also the political landscape ahead of the next general election.
Politics is about momentum, and things can move very quickly. In 2017, Theresa May scored a landslide victory in May’s local elections, only to be stripped of her majority - and authority - a little over a month later. But the headline results from these elections are undoubtedly clear - Labour made significant gains of over 500 seats, becoming the largest party in local government since 2002, whilst the Conservatives lost over 1,000 seats, and with it control of almost 50 local councils.
Perhaps these results are not that surprising. In the last year Britain has seen three Conservative Prime Ministers, unprecedented economic instability caused by Liz Truss’ mini Budget, and soaring inflation pushing up the cost of living. Since Rishi Sunak’s appointment as Prime Minister last autumn, he has undoubtedly brought stability to the economy, and his competent, serious leadership is something voters are warming to.
Recent polling from Redfield and Wilton shows Sunak has seen a dramatic rise in his popularity since taking office, jumping 12 points since late March, and a series of competent policy wins - from the Windsor Framework which aims to solve post-Brexit trade difficulties in Northern Ireland, to improvements to education funding, and attempting to tackle one of the biggest issues facing the younger generation, childcare reform - a key recommendation set out in Lord Walney’s recent Cost of Living Taskforce Report.
Sunak is undoubtedly getting significant credit from the British public for these wins. Indeed, some results might show this. In the North East - an area which saw significant economic investment and regeneration during Rishi Sunak’s time as Chancellor, whilst Labour became the largest party in Darlington, the Conservatives gained over 11 seats in neighboring Stockton to become the largest party, and gained six seats in Redcar and Cleveland. There are other chinks of hope for the Conservatives. The party made major gains in Slough and Leicester, which have long been under Labour control, and gained both Bedford and Torbay from the otherwise surging Liberal Democrats.
Having inherited a 30-point Labour lead from his predecessor Liz Truss, making up the gap is going to be very difficult for the Prime Minister, and the results proved that.
From the Brexit heartlands of the Red Wall, to the truly conservative Blue Wall, Labour is making progress in key election battlegrounds. Labour gained power in Blackpool, Mansfield, and North East Derbyshire - seats Labour must win simply to be the largest party after the next election. In true-blue Bracknell Forest, Labour won the Council from an almost standing start, and in the ultimate election battleground of Swindon - which has voted for the winner in every General Election since 1983 - Labour won a majority of seats in the town.
One of the key criticisms of Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership is a failure to set out what the party would do in government. Earlier this year, the Labour leader set out five ‘Missions’ to demonstrate what a Labour government would do in power, but - understandably - there are yet to be many concrete policy promises associated with these broad aims. That’s why later this year, Nick Forbes CBE - a former member of Sir Keir Starmer’s Shadow Cabinet - will be setting out 5 bold new ideas to accompany each of these missions in our new Purpose with Labour report.
Labour now has an opportunity, and a responsibility, to show what it would do in government. Where Labour Councillors have been elected - often in parts of the country which haven’t voted for a Labour government for two decades, if ever - the party now needs to show what it will do with power.
We know that Levelling Up was a key reason - alongside Brexit - for why people in towns and cities across the country voted Conservative in such great numbers in 2019. In towns like Stoke on Trent, Blackpool, and Thanet - where Labour now have overall control - the party has an opportunity to prove to these communities, as well as the rest of the country, how it’s going to deliver on improving opportunities and help local communities to thrive.
Professor Michael Thrasher of Plymouth University has suggested that based on yesterday’s local election results, Labour would - by 60 seats - be the largest party in a General Election, but fall 28 seats short of a majority, likely relying on the Scottish National Party or Liberal Democrats to enter government. Demonstrating what a Labour government would do in power is now essential for the party to bridge that gap.
With a general election now a little over 12 months away, Sir Keir Starmer and the Labour Party has an opportunity, and responsibility, to use its power to show how it will deliver on people’s key priorities. This is going to be an important period ahead. The battle for No.10 is still very much up in the air, and every day will count for both political parties.